Letter from Buenos Aires - no 6

It has been three weeks since letter 5 and much has happened here.

Argentina has long been a member of Mercosur (Mercado Común del Sur), a trading group for Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay and Bolivia, with Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyana, Peru and Suriname as associate members. It operates as a block, entering into trading deals that bind all of its members.

As you might imagine, President Javier Milei has some issues with this arrangement. He wants the opportunity to forge bilateral free-trade agreements with countries outside the block, a step currently precluded under Mercosur rules. He has one ally in Luis Lacalle Pou, President of Uruguay, but he is shortly to leave office. Perhaps Paraguay may be sympathetic? Brazil and Chile are his problem. A particular target is the European market where meat exports could be exchanged for technology. As you might imagine, French farmers are less than lukewarm with the idea.

They meet this coming week. Will Argentina be able to push a deal on the basis of a threat to leave the block? Will President Trump rise to rescue Milei should he quit Mercosur?

Meanwhile, the fraught relationship between Milei and his Vice President Victoria Villarruel has taken another knock. When I saw them together on 1 November at a police graduation they looked strained. I understand that they have not been seen together since. The problem for Milei is that the position of Vice President is an elected post, so not within his gift. The problem for Villarruel is, without engagement by the President, she becomes a lame duck.

It is one of those rainy summer Sundays in Buenos Aires with humidity at 86%. The view from the roof garden of Palacio Haedo looks out over a soggy Plaza San Martin and on to the river Plata. The green parakeets are back. A tribe of them has just landed noisily in the palm trees below.